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Projecting Enrollment

CFAC 2-minute videos: Projecting Enrollment


This is the second in a series of 2-minute videos highlighting the findings of the Community Facilities Advisory Committee that the Hamilton School Board commissioned in October to review growth and facilities needs in the district.

In the first 2-minute video, we saw that municipalities approved 1,757 new residential lots in the Hamilton School District, and yet school officials are estimating the new development will produce only 280 additional students in the next five years. Some may wonder if enrollment projections are too low.

This video examines the process used to project enrollment in a growing community.

The last time the Hamilton School District went to referendum to add more classrooms was in 2018. Like now, the district gathered information from municipalities regarding home sites that would be available in the next five years. THEN – municipalities reported that approximately 1,500 home sites were available. In four years, 66% of those sites were built — with the district experiencing 1.1% annual enrollment growth.

To project future enrollment, current class sizes were rolled forward and 1.1% growth was added based on the district’s recent experience. In addition, home site availability by school attendance area was factored in.

Because Silver Spring Intermediate is new and Hamilton High had recent classroom additions, they will be able to handle future enrollment growth. This is what we expect to see using the enrollment model at other schools. Here are enrollment projections for each of the schools: Willow Springs Learning Center, Maple Ave. Elementary, Marcy Elementary, Woodside Elementary and Templeton Middle School.

Most schools will remain below their enrollment of 2018 when several of them were past capacity. The exception is Lannon Elementary School which will exceed its previous enrollment.